Plywood and Hardwood Prices in 2026: How Tariffs Hit the Lumberyard Counter

I stood at the sheet goods rack last month watching a guy price out a set of cabinets. He picked up a sheet of 3/4 birch plywood, checked the tag, put it down, checked it again like the number might apologize. It didn't. That's the year we're in. The framing-lumber chaos you've been reading about since 2025 has finally finished working its way down to the hobbyist counter.

Here's how we got here, what it's actually costing, and what I'd do about it.

The Spike That Started It

Back on March 14, 2025, lumber futures hit over $664 per thousand board feet, the most expensive they'd been in nearly two and a half years. Family Handyman pinned the surge on uncertainty around the tariff rollouts on Canada and Mexico, and quoted wood-market consultant Russ Taylor calling the policy environment "total chaos." That word holds up.

The reason Canada matters so much is simple math. The U.S. imports about 30% of the softwood lumber used in construction, per Family Handyman, and NAHB puts Canada at nearly 85% of U.S. lumber imports. Our sawmills were running at 64% of capacity in early 2025. So when trade policy gets shaky, we don't have a domestic spare tire. We pay.

One thing to understand before you blame your yard: futures prices don't show up at the counter overnight. Suppliers buy stock months in advance, so a futures surge takes at least a few months to reach the lumberyard, per Family Handyman. And NAHB's analysis of the mechanism is blunt: in a rising market, wholesalers quote at or near current prices, and retailers are price takers whose inventory costs climb in step. Prices go up fast and come down slow, sometimes weeks to months. If that sounds like a rigged game, it's because in a bull market, it kind of is.

The Tariff Stack, Straight Up

Here's the stack on Canadian softwood as best anyone can tally it. A 10% Section 232 tariff on all softwood timber and lumber imports took effect October 14, 2025, and it landed on top of Commerce duties that had more than doubled from 14.5% to 35%, pushing the total on Canadian lumber to 45%, per NAHB. By September 2026, preliminary antidumping and countervailing duties fell to a combined 25.9%, which with the 10% Section 232 tariff left a combined rate of 35.9% on Canadian imports, according to NAHB. Worth noting: JMLogMarket's April 2026 update claimed total tariffs "exceed 40% in many categories," which conflicts with NAHB's figure. I'm going with NAHB as the authoritative number, but the fact that the trade press can't agree tells you how messy this is.

Meanwhile the cabinet and furniture tariffs hit: 25% on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered furniture, also effective October 14, 2025. Those were scheduled to jump to 50% on cabinets and 30% on furniture on January 1, 2026. Then on January 2, 2026, the White House delayed the increases until at least January 1, 2027, citing ongoing negotiations. So the 25% rate holds for now. Don't mistake "delayed" for "dead."

And here's the wrinkle that matters for plywood buyers: the Section 232 proclamation does not apply to plywood under HTS 4412, including lauan, per the RV Industry Association, though there's been some ambiguity over lauan and reciprocal tariffs. So your sheet goods aren't directly tariffed the way framing lumber is. But "not tariffed" and "cheap" are not the same thing, as we'll see.

The Counter Caught Up Anyway

If tariffs don't touch plywood under 4412, why is your plywood bill climbing? Whatever the cause, the builder-grade numbers tell the story.

Gordian's RSMeans framing-lumber cost index rose 9.67% quarter over quarter and 11.21% year over year in Q4 2026, the largest quarterly jump since Q2 2022. That's nearly $90 per thousand board feet added for builders in a single quarter. And here's the part that matters to us: in Q3 2026, when framing lumber was flat, plywood products jumped 11% and pine boards rose 3%, per Gordian. Sheet goods and boards are outpacing framing lumber. The squeeze is moving downstream.

There's also a weird disconnect between paper and cash prices. Madison's framing lumber composite, which NAHB tracks, sat at $506.76 per thousand board feet on September 25, 2026, up 4.5% year over year, while futures were down 10.2% over the same span. That's the lag working in reverse: retail rises fast in a bull market and falls slow after one. Don't hold your breath waiting for futures dips to reach the rack.

Futures themselves cooled through spring 2026, falling to $584.54 per thousand board feet on April 6, from a January three-month high of $614.50, per Trading Economics data cited by VinaWood. Fine. The counter didn't care.

Poplar: The Wood That Got Popular

Now the hardwood angle, and this one's counterintuitive. When framing lumber gets expensive, builders substitute domestic hardwoods, and poplar is the direct beneficiary of the softwood squeeze, per JMLogMarket's April 2026 Appalachian market update. Poplar goes into interior millwork, trim, and painted cabinet boxes, which is exactly what contractors reach for when softwood prices pinch. JMLogMarket had poplar up modestly from February 2026 levels and expected the trend to continue through spring.

I've painted more poplar trim than I can count, and honestly, it's the right tool for that job. Cheap-ish, stable enough, takes paint clean. The problem is everyone else figured that out too.

For reference, JMLogMarket's April 2026 FAS sawn prices per thousand board feet: poplar $525 to $725, red oak $775 to $1,025, hard maple $925 to $1,225, white oak $1,000 to $1,300, and black walnut $3,200 to $5,000. Cherry FAS runs $750 to $975, up from 2024 lows with what JMLogMarket calls the best order activity in three years, partly because furniture-import tariffs make domestic pieces more price-competitive. White oak is locked up by cooperage demand anyway; Kentucky rickhouses hold over 14 million aging barrels, and those barrels aren't going to build your cabinet doors.

What It Costs at a Real Yard

Northwest Lumber Company in Indianapolis publishes its plywood list online, and while the page carries no date, so treat it as indicative rather than gospel, it's a real yard's real numbers. 3/4-inch paint-grade birch plywood runs $47.95 per 4x8 sheet, 3/4-inch poplar plywood $61.95, and 3/4-inch oak plywood $67, per Northwest Lumber's list. Step up the species and it gets ugly fast: 3/4 walnut at $147, white oak at $145, cherry $129 to $160, and maple at $110. Baltic birch 5x5 sheets run $65 to $95 in 3/4.

Two cautions from that same list. Northwest's page shows two conflicting price blocks for poplar plywood, one listing 3/4 poplar B-2 at $115 and 1/4 poplar at $44.95, so call ahead. And if you're doing cabinet work, remember that "3/4 inch" plywood actually measures 23/32", per APA as cited by ShakerCabinets.com, while Baltic birch 18mm measures 0.709". That's a hundredth of an inch thinner. Dadoes cut for domestic 3/4 will leave Baltic birch loose. Sled or shim accordingly.

If you're pinching pennies, 1/4-inch lauan at $14.95 a sheet and 3/4-inch premium MDF at $49 are on the list, and MDF under paint is a perfectly honest choice for a lot of work. I wouldn't put lauan anywhere that has to survive real use or real weather, but for drawer bottoms and jig backs, fine.

Playing the Tariff Year

So what do you actually do? The buying-strategy advice the sources support boils down to timing and substitution. NAHB's transmission analysis and Family Handyman both point the same direction: retail climbs fast and drops slow, so a DIYer's best defense is buying before you need to. OK Lumber Company, out of San Carlos, California, recommends buying early before spring and summer demand, budgeting a buffer, avoiding late design changes that waste material, and asking about alternative grades and lengths.

My translation for the shop: if you've got a project planned for this year, buy your sheet goods when your design is final, not the week you start cutting. Design changes after purchase are how you pay twice. A yard that sells cut-to-size service, like Northwest's $2-per-cut plus $5 setup, can save you money on waste for small parts.

The Verdict

This isn't a futures story anymore. It's a counter story. Check your yard's current pricing, buy when the design's locked, and don't wait for futures to save you. The lag runs one direction.